Up to 200 million people could become “environmental refugees” by the middle of the century due to climate change, according to a new global security report from The Oxford Research Group, calling for armed security forces across the world to prepare for the new challenges ahead.

The report’s author, Chris Abbot, warned that attempts to tackle these new problems using existing strategies are doomed to failure. He called for leadership from police, security services and military to steer politicians in developing new co-operative approaches for sustainable security that focus on preventing and managing climate change, “rather than relying on force to try and control the insecurity later."

Massive Migrations
Scientists predict that if global average temperatures rise by 1.8 to 4.0 degrees Celsius this century, weather and vegetation patterns will profoundly shift, and sea level will rise at least one meter. Eighty percent of the world's population live on or near the coasts. In Bangladesh alone, 17 million people live at less than a meter of elevation.

Climate change may cause not only wars and chaos over food, water and energy supplies, but also massive displacement of people due to coastlines retreating, island nations drowning, droughts, natural disasters, and heightened political conflict. With millions of people fleeing their devastated homelands, national borders will be put under severe pressure.

But immigration should not be addressed as a threat, the report states, "These people will be refugees, having been forced from their homes.  They will need support and protection, and immigration will need to be managed, not simply controlled."

Can Governments Cope?
New and unforeseen disputes may also arise, such as melting ice opening up viable shipping routes through the Arctic, where there is already tension between Canada and the United States, the report said. Similarly, domestic populations may lose faith if their governments are not able to respond adequately to natural disasters, while scarcity of resources is likely to increase tension between communities and ethnic groups. Environmental refugees may even challenge the definitions of citizenship itself. If low-lying islands like Tuvalu in the South Pacific disappear, where can its inhabitants be a sovereign people?

Thus, "there is genuine concern over whether the international governance system will be able to cope with these new geo-political challenges, particularly if national governments are being undermined at the same time," the report concludes. The Global Risk Report for 2008 cited the highest levels of political and economic uncertainty in a decade, and warned of systemic financial risk, rising energy prices, and a continuation of the world's dire food situation. Young Global Leaders polled at the World Economic Forum last week indicated that these issues would "require long-term, globally coordinated responses, which the current political/economic system does not support." They predicted a powershift over the next twent years with nation states declining in power while multinational corporations and individuals will gain power.

Strategic planners are not unaware of the potential crises of climate change. While the Bush administration was denying climate change and focusing on the War on Terror, the Pentagon in October 2003 released a study finding that climate change could prove a greater risk to the world than terrorism. Although commissioned by highly respected Defense Department planner, and former Shell Oil head planner, Andrew Marshall, the apocalyptic global warming study did little to steer White House policy.

Rethinking Approaches
In Europe, the Stern Review has convinced many that preparing for global warming will be significantly cheaper than dealing with disasters. About 3 euros a week, according to EU Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso. But deciding how to spend that money will depend on predicting what the threats will be.

The Oxford Report concludes that law enforcement and police will face a variety of issues ranging from greater demands for border security, to the challenge of enforcing regulations in carbon trading and greenhouse gas reductions. Events such as flooding, wildfire, mudslides, and hurricanes will "place massive demands on the police to both maintain security and provide emergency response," including evacuation. Dealing with these challenges will require greater planning integration with local services and federal disaster response agencies.

"Planners need to be aware that what may ultimately be necessary is a shift in funding from traditional military spending to funding for the non-military elements of security  - including conflict prevention and disaster relief. " Shifting government spending from "expensive defence projects such as new nuclear weapon systems, massive aircraft carriers and missile defence shields" could free up funds for civilian programmes better suited to deal with environmental challenges such as renewable energy projects, sustainable urban agriculture, and improving water resources.

Fortunately, business and government leaders from around the world are already reshaping the landscape of international business and diplomacy to fit an age of collaborative networks, micro-finance, and mobile communication. Local municipalities are leading the fight for climate change, and the new face of humanitarian relief is taking the shape of partnerships between public and private institutions.

Whether global security is capable of converting from reactive to preventative strategies is certainly questionable without the initiation of countries like the U.S. But the urgency for more powerful voices to collectively enter the debate on global warming, the report emphasizes, is wholly imperative.

Image courtesy of the World Prout Assembly.